巴基斯坦对平均和极端气候事件的人口暴露变化以及相关机制
Farhan Saleem1,2, Wenxia Zhang3, Saadia Hina4
1International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing PR China.
GeoHealth
|October 27, 2023
概括
巴基斯坦人口暴露于极端气候的数量翻了一番,城市地区受影响最大. 这一趋势是由气温上升和降水量增加所驱动的,由于城市化迅速发展,这增加了脆弱性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 全球变暖和极端气候变化越来越多地影响城市人口.
- 了解人口对气候变化的暴露对于适应策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查1979-2020年巴基斯坦农业生态区 (AEZ) 中人口暴露于平均和极端气候事件的变化.
- 确定驱动这些暴露变化的机制,特别是与城市化有关的变化.
主要方法:
- 分析巴基斯坦AEZ中平均和极端温度和降水的时空趋势.
- 使用人日指标对温度和降水事件量化人口暴露变化.
- 将暴露变化归因于气候影响和与城市化相互作用的影响.
主要成果:
- 在北部,东北部和南部的AEZ观察到显著的变暖趋势.
- 不均的降水变化,东北AEZ显著增加.
- 与1979-1999年相比,人口对平均和极端温度和降水事件的暴露在2000-2020年期间翻了一番.
- 城市AEZ (印度河三角洲,北灌平原,巴拉尼/降雨) 显示暴露于极端温度和降雨的增加最高.
- 巴基斯坦东北部的相对暴露变化很大 (60%-90%),与人口分布相关.
- 气候效应主要驱动暴露变化,在北灌平原的特定极端降水事件中,相互作用效应显著.
结论:
- 在巴基斯坦的主要AEZ中,人口对极端气候的暴露迅速增加.
- 城市定居点暴露得不成比例,加剧了脆弱性.
- 未来的城市化和人口增长可能会加剧这种暴露,迫切需要采取适应和缓解措施.
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