对使用深度学习方法的老年社区成员的长期生存预测模型
Kyoung Hee Cho1, Jong-Min Paek2, Kwang-Man Ko2
1Department of Health Policy and Management, SangJi University, Wonju-si 26339, Republic of Korea.
Geriatrics (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 27, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了一种深度学习模型,用于预测老年人的生存率,确定关键的风险因素,如并发症和脆弱性,以改善健康管理和寿命.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 医疗保健中的人工智能
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化需要健康老龄化和经济参与的战略.
- 预测生存率和识别健康风险对于老年人来说至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种深度学习模型,用于预测社区老年人的生存时间.
- 识别和量化各种风险因素对生存期的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用的韩国国民健康保险服务对189,697名66岁的个人在11年 (2009-2019) 期间的索赔数据.
- 开发并验证了一种基于深度学习的生存时间预测模型 (C-统计 = 0.7011).
主要成果:
- 确定了重要的生存预测因素:查尔森并发症指数,虚弱指数,长期护理等级,残疾等级,收入,糖尿病/高血压/脂质失调综合,性别,吸烟和酒精消费.
- 查尔森的并发症指数和脆弱性指数显示出最强的预测能力 (SHAP值分别为0.0445和0.0443).
结论:
- 深度学习模型可以有效地预测老年人的生存率.
- 确定可修改的风险因素 (例如,并发症,脆弱性),可以为长寿提供个性化的健康管理策略.
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