将宿主内部和宿主之间的尺度联系起来,以了解定量抗菌素耐药性的进化动态
Martin L Mann-Manyombe1,2, Abdoulaye Mendy1,2, Ousmane Seydi2
1MIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Journal of mathematical biology
|October 27, 2023
概括
抗微生物耐药性 (AMR) 演变是使用嵌套方法建模的,该方法将宿主内部和宿主之间的动态联系起来. 该模型有助于理解AMR传播和控制策略,影响公共卫生.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 抗菌素耐药性 (AMR) 构成了全球重大公共卫生挑战.
- 了解AMR流行病学和进化动态之间的相互作用对于有效控制至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往难以整合主机内部和主机间的阻力动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的嵌套数学模型,明确地将宿主内和宿主间的抗菌素耐药性尺度联系起来.
- 分析细菌群体的流行病学和进化动态,将耐药性作为一种连续的特征.
- 调查治疗策略对抗菌素耐药性出现和流行病传播的影响.
主要方法:
- 一个嵌套的数学模型,使用整微分方程,根据耐药水平和感染以来的时间进行结构化.
- 分析宿主内部细菌种群动态和宿主之间的流行病传播.
- 数学分析,包括统一的持久性和全球的非对称稳定性,以验证模型行为.
主要成果:
- 该模型成功地捕获了细菌种群动态,耐药性的进化过渡动态和宿主种群流行病动态.
- 数学分析证实了模型的稳定性和持久性.
- 治疗率显著影响流行病爆发和抗菌素耐药性的平均水平.
结论:
- 嵌套模型提供了一个全面的框架,以了解不同规模的AMR动态.
- 治疗策略,包括它们在宿主层面的成功或失败,对抗药物耐药性控制有重大影响.
- 在治疗和未治疗的感染人群之间管理过渡的干预措施对于降低平均耐药性水平至关重要.
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