一个新的统计方法,以中国的道路货物运输在次国家级的水平
Fuyou Huang1, Jianbo Wang2, Wenying Xie3
1Institute of Transportation Development Strategy & Planning of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China.
PloS one
|October 27, 2023
概括
中国的官方公路货运数据与现实有很大差异. 本研究引入了当地货运指标以提高准确性,揭示了大量未记录的货运运输,特别是在发达地区.
科学领域:
- 物流与运输科学 物流与运输科学
- 区域经济学 区域经济学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 中国的公路货运官方统计数据显示,在地方级别有很大的差异.
- 现有的数据收集方法无法捕捉到道路货运性能的完整图景.
研究的目的:
- 通过引入当地货运位和公里的概念来解决公路货运数据的偏差.
- 开发统计程序和估计模型,用于准确地测量本地货运.
- 在中国四川省经验验证拟议的方法.
主要方法:
- 引入基于领土原则 (本地来源或目的地) 的"本地货运"概念.
- 开发使用五个可访问的基本数据集的统计程序和估计模型.
- 在四川省进行的实证案例研究.
主要成果:
- 目前,非商业和非本地卡车运输的大量当地货物在官方统计数据中被遗漏.
- 官方数据与实际货运业绩之间的偏差随着当地经济发展水平的提高而增加.
- 拟议的当地货运指标提供了一个更准确的代表区域货运活动.
结论:
- 当地货运位和公里的概念对于理解地方级道路货运的真正表现至关重要.
- 目前的官方统计数据低估了公路货运,特别是在经济发达地区.
- 准确的货运数据对于有效的区域规划和经济政策制定至关重要.
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