使用驱动器和传播途径来识别类似SARS的冠状病毒溢出风险热点
Renata L Muylaert1, David A Wilkinson2, Tigga Kingston3
1School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand. R.deLaraMuylaert@massey.ac.nz.
Nature communications
|October 27, 2023
概括
了解类似SARS的冠状病毒溢出风险需要分析景观变化,宿主分布和人类暴露. 靠近医疗保健的高风险地区凸显了远离医疗服务的人口的不平等.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 动物传播疾病,包括类似SARS的冠状病毒,通过复杂的多阶段过程出现.
- 野生动物水库对跨物种传播到人类的风险很大.
研究的目的:
- 为了表征动物性SARS类冠状病毒溢出风险的驱动因素.
- 为新出现的传染病提供监测和缓解策略的信息.
- 检查高风险溢出区的医疗保健准入差异.
主要方法:
- 直接和间接传输通道的建模.
- 分析了涉及畜牧业和野生动物水库的四个场景.
- 在确定的风险集群中评估医疗保健准入.
主要成果:
- 确定了19个不同的风险集群,无论是在国家内部还是跨国.
- 高风险溢出区域主要位于靠近医疗保健设施的地方.
- 在远离医疗保健的地区,特别是在涉及野生哺乳动物的场景中,观察到严重的医疗保健准入不平等.
结论:
- 景观变化,宿主分布和人类暴露是动物性冠状病毒传播的关键驱动因素.
- 地理接近医疗保健影响风险,并突出了获取不平等.
- 研究结果支持综合的"健康一带一路"方法,土地利用规划和疾病预防的医疗保健策略.
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