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一个全面的数值模型,用于水库诱导的地震风险评估
Xuefeng Peng1,2, Rong Zhao1,2, Kai Deng1,2
1Key Laboratory of Earth Exploration and Information Technology of Ministry of Education, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 28, 2023
概括
准确评估来自水库埋水的地震风险是一项挑战. 这项研究开发了一个数值模型来估计断层脆弱性,发现断层位置和方向对于确定地震危险至关重要.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震工程的工程是地震工程.
- 水文地质学 水文地质学
背景情况:
- 储水池的堆积可以触发地震活动,带来风险.
- 在水库运营期间准确地评估地震风险是复杂的.
- 了解水库负载下的故障行为对于安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数值模型来估计故障易受水库灌的脆弱性.
- 分析断层参数和水库方向对地震风险的影响.
- 确定预测地震发生的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 在极坐标风险框架内开发了一个整合断层沉降和相对方向的数值模型.
- 采用完全合的2D多弹性方法来计算应力和孔隙压力变化.
- 整合了地震数据来完善模型的准确性.
主要成果:
- 相对于水库的断层定位是地震风险的最关键因素.
- 断层方向显著影响地震发生的可能性.
- 由于堆积,弹性应力和流体孔隙压力的计算变化.
结论:
- 断层的确切位置和方向在对水库的地震危险评估中至关重要.
- 开发的模型为识别危险区域提供了一个框架.
- 这项研究增强了对水库诱导的地震性的理解.
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