适用于观察实验室病毒学数据的灵活回归建模方法表明,上呼吸道样本中的SARS-CoV-2负载随着COVID-19流行病学变化而发生变化
Laura Pellegrinelli1, Ester Luconi2, Giuseppe Marano2
1Department of Biomedical Sciences for Health, University of Milan, 20133 Milan, Italy.
Viruses
|October 28, 2023
概括
这项研究发现,2021年COVID-19浪潮中接种疫苗的个体与2020年浪潮中未接种疫苗的个体相比,SARS-CoV-2病毒载荷较低,清除速度更快. 这些发现有助于完善控制病毒的公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 了解SARS-CoV-2 (严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2) 在上呼吸道中的病毒载荷动态对于有效控制COVID-19至关重要.
- 从2020年和2021年冬季浪潮中收集的鼻口腔扫描 (NPSs) 的实验室数据的回顾性分析为病毒载荷演变提供了洞察力.
研究的目的:
- 探索SARS-CoV-2负载和清除在症状和无症状个体中的演变.
- 为了比较疫苗接种前 (2020) 和疫苗接种后 (2021) COVID-19 波之间的病毒载荷趋势和清除时间.
主要方法:
- 利用定量回归和生存模型对262名SARS-CoV-2阳性成人784名NPS的间隔审查数据.
- 分析了从第一个阳性测试到六周 (2020) 和三周 (2021) 的病毒载荷趋势.
- 定义的SARS-CoV-2清除作为一个周期值 (Ct) 值小于35.
主要成果:
- 2021年浪潮显示,与2020年浪潮 (5.42日志副本/毫升) 相比,在指数事件 (6.25日志副本/毫升) 中的病毒载荷中位数更高.
- 在发病后14天,病毒载量在两波中都显著下降,在2021波 (2.93日志副本/毫升) 和2020波 (3.40日志副本/毫升) 中的水平较低.
- 与2020年波相比,2021年波中感染个体的比例 (Ct <35) 大约下降了一半. 在2020年波中,各个年龄组和症状/无症状个体之间注意到病毒载荷差异.
结论:
- 该研究强调了先进的统计方法对分析病毒学数据的有用性,以告知公共卫生决策.
- 研究结果表明,疫苗接种和未接种人群之间的病毒动态可能存在差异,这会影响传染性.
- 这些分析方法可以支持及时调整COVID-19控制措施,以应对新出现的SARS-CoV-2变种.
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