预测晚期喉状细胞癌的存活率:机器学习模型和Cox回归模型的比较
Yi-Fan Zhang1, Yu-Jie Shen1, Qiang Huang1
1Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Eye & ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200031, China.
Scientific reports
|October 29, 2023
概括
机器学习模型可以预测喉状细胞癌 (LSCC) 的进展. 这些模型有助于识别高风险患者,改善晚期LSCC病例的生存率和生活质量.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 机器学习在医学中的应用
- 癌症预后 癌症预后
背景情况:
- 喉状细胞癌 (LSCC) 的复发率很高,影响患者的生存率和生活质量.
- 先进的LSCC (AJCC阶段III-IV) 需要改进的预后工具来指导治疗决策.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证机器学习模型,用于预测晚期LSCC患者的无病生存期 (DFS).
- 为了比较考克斯回归模型和随机生存森林 (RSF) 模型的预测性能.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自671名晚期LSCC患者的临床病理学数据.
- 开发了使用考克斯回归和RSF分析预测DFS的预后模型.
- 在培训和验证队伍中使用接收器运行特征 (ROC) 曲线和曲线下的面积 (AUC) 度量来评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 考克斯回归和RSF模型都在预测DFS方面表现出良好的灵敏度和特异性.
- RSF的分析确定了N阶段,临床阶段和术后化学放射治疗作为显著的预后因素.
- 该RSF模型在培训队列中显示出优异的预测,在验证队列中表现与Cox模型相比.
结论:
- 机器学习模型,特别是RSF,为预测高级LSCC中的DFS提供了有价值的工具.
- 确定了可以为临床决策和患者管理提供信息的关键预后变量.
- 开发的模型可以帮助在晚期喉癌患者的风险分层.
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