机器学习算法用于预测南非COVID-19死亡率的决定因素
Emmanuel Chimbunde1, Lovemore N Sigwadhi1, Jacques L Tamuzi1
1Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
Frontiers in artificial intelligence
|October 30, 2023
概括
机器学习模型准确地预测了COVID-19重症监护室 (ICU) 死亡率. 这些工具可以帮助在资源有限的环境中优先考虑高风险患者,改善患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- COVID-19 严重压迫了全球医疗保健系统.
- 有效的患者预后对于在重症监护病房 (ICU) 的资源分配和分拣至关重要.
- 南非在管理COVID-19患者护理方面面临着特殊的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 确定与南非ICU中COVID-19死亡率相关的关键风险因素.
- 开发和评估用于预测COVID-19ICU死亡率的机器学习模型.
- 评估人工神经网络 (ANN) 和随机森林 (RF) 对预测的有用性.
主要方法:
- 利用了392名COVID-19ICU患者 (2020年3月至2021年2月) 的数据.
- 采用人工神经网络 (ANN),随机森林 (RF) 和半参数后勤回归模型.
- 使用灵敏度,准确度,特异性和科恩的卡帕统计数据评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 关键预测ICU死亡率的关键预测因素包括年龄,性别,喘,严重症状,呼吸机使用和集群变量.
- 喘患者的死亡率高出六倍.
- ANN模型实现了71%的准确性,83%的精度,100%的F1得分和88%的回忆,科恩的卡帕0.75.
- 射频模型显示76%的回忆率和87%的精度.
结论:
- 无论是ANN和RF模型都在预测COVID-19ICU死亡率方面表现出高准确性.
- 这些机器学习模型可以有效地预测患者诊断后的预后.
- 这些模型为在资源有限的ICU中优先考虑高风险的COVID-19患者提供了有价值的工具.
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