空间向结核病查在秘鲁利马的家庭接触者追踪之外的影响有限:基于模型的分析分析
Joshua Havumaki1, Joshua L Warren2, Jon Zelner3,4
1Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America.
PloS one
|October 30, 2023
概括
家庭接触者追踪 (HHCT) 有效地发现结核病例,但对人口的影响有限. 面向空间的查效率较低,除非在非常大的规模上进行,否则提供最小的额外好处.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生干预措施 公共卫生干预措施
背景情况:
- 数学模型表明,以空间为目标的结核病查可以加速疾病控制.
- 对这些干预措施的实证数据和高分辨率空间分布分析是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 估计空间向干预措施的增量效率和影响,结合家庭接触者追踪 (HHCT) 结核.
- 为了比较HHCT与空间向查的有效性.
主要方法:
- 校准了一个以个人为基础的模型到秘鲁利马的结核病例通知地点.
- 评估了HHCT和空间向查的效率 (每个确诊病例查的个体) 和人口影响 (减少发病率).
主要成果:
- HHCT是有效的,需要平均每发现病例查40个接触者,但对人口的影响有限 (在5年内减少3.7%的发病率).
- 面向空间的查效率较低,需要每例查的人数比HHCT多12倍.
- 将空间向查与HHCT结合起来只能提供适度的额外发病率降低 (≈1.3%).
结论:
- HHCT是发现结核病例的有效方法,但对总人口的影响有限.
- 针对结核病的空间查效率较低,需要非常大规模的实施才能实现显著的人口层面的影响.
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