对世界经济中冲击分布的敏感性分析
Viktor Domazetoski1, Maryan Rizinski2,3, Dimitar Trajanov2,3
1Research Center for Computer Science and Information Technologies, Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Skopje, Macedonia.
PloS one
|October 30, 2023
概括
全球化增加了经济相互依存,创造了复杂的全球价值链 (GVC). 本研究引入了一种新的冲击张量,用于分析网络干扰如何影响供需,帮助制定贸易风险政策决策.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 网络分析 网络分析
背景情况:
- 全球化增加了经济相互依存和全球价值链 (GVC) 的复杂性.
- 这种相互依赖引起了人们对贸易风险和网络干扰对国家经济的影响的担忧.
- 了解这些动态对于明智的政策决策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析网络连接干扰对全球经济国家输出供应和输入需求的影响.
- 引入一种新的方法,即冲击张量,用于评估链路灵敏度和冲击传播.
- 提供对贸易关系和全球化趋势的定量见解.
主要方法:
- 从2000年至2014年使用世界输入输出数据库 (WIOD) 建模国家互联.
- 使用灵敏度分析来量化网络连接的变化.
- 定义和使用冲击张量来评估链接灵敏度的影响.
主要成果:
- 网络连接的量化变化揭示了全球经济中冲击分布的模式.
- 冲击张量为国家配对提供输入和输出链路灵敏度.
- 时间序列分析突出显示了冲击传播和国家关系的演变趋势.
结论:
- 该研究建立了一种结构化的方法,以了解全球价值链中冲击分布的总体影响.
- 该方法为决策者提供了有价值的见解,以评估贸易关系并做出明智的决定.
- 结果有助于全面了解全球化动态和相关风险.
相关概念视频
Shock Waves
2.0K
While deriving the Doppler formula for the observed frequency of a sound wave, it is assumed that the speed of sound in the medium is greater than the source's speed through it. When this condition is breached, a shock wave occurs.
When the source's speed approaches the speed of sound, constructive interference between successive wavefronts emitted by the source occurs immediately behind it. Initially, scientists believed that this constructive interference would result in such high...
When the source's speed approaches the speed of sound, constructive interference between successive wavefronts emitted by the source occurs immediately behind it. Initially, scientists believed that this constructive interference would result in such high...
2.0K
Blood Pressure Imbalances and Circulatory Shock
790
Disorders affecting blood volume, vascular tone, or vascular function can disrupt vascular homeostasis, including conditions like hypertension, hemorrhage, and shock.
Blood Pressure: Hypertension and Hypotension
Normal blood pressure is 120/80 mm Hg. Elevated blood pressure is 120-129/under 80 mm Hg. Hypertension, warranting treatment at 130/80 mm Hg, is often asymptomatic and can lead to severe cardiovascular events, aneurysms, peripheral arterial disease, chronic renal disease, or cardiac...
Blood Pressure: Hypertension and Hypotension
Normal blood pressure is 120/80 mm Hg. Elevated blood pressure is 120-129/under 80 mm Hg. Hypertension, warranting treatment at 130/80 mm Hg, is often asymptomatic and can lead to severe cardiovascular events, aneurysms, peripheral arterial disease, chronic renal disease, or cardiac...
790
Econometric Views (EViews)
146
Econometric Views, often stylized as EViews, is a package that merges statistical analysis with econometric studies. It is designed to provide tools for time series analysis, forecasting, and econometric model simulation. The software originated from MicroTSP software and has evolved significantly since its inception in 1981. The history of EViews is marked by a continuous effort to enhance its computational speed and user interface. It was initially developed for large computing systems but...
146
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
450
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
450
Stress Concentrations in Circular Shafts
184
Consider the elastic torsion formula, which applies to a circular shaft with a consistent cross-section. This formula assumes that the shaft's ends are loaded with rigid plates firmly attached. However, in many cases, torques are applied to the shaft through mechanisms like flange couplings or gears, which are connected by keys inserted into keyways. This application method modifies the stress distribution near the point of torque application, causing it to deviate from the distributions...
184
Empirical Method to Interpret Standard Deviation
5.3K
The empirical rule, also known as the three-sigma rule, allows a statistician to interpret the standard deviation in a normally distributed dataset. The rule states that 68% of the data lies within one standard deviation from the mean, 95% lies within two standard deviations from the mean, and 99.7% lies within three standard deviations from the mean. Additionally, this rule is also called the 68-95-99.7 rule.
This rule is used widely in statistics to calculate the proportion of data values...
This rule is used widely in statistics to calculate the proportion of data values...
5.3K


