全球变暖可能会显著增加撒哈拉以南非洲的儿童贫血负担
Yixiang Zhu1, Cheng He1,2,3, Antonio Gasparrini4,5,6
1School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
全球变暖增加了儿童贫血风险,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家. 气候变化可能会显著增加贫血病例,强调需要减轻和适应战略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 儿科 儿科 儿科
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 儿童贫血是一个主要的全球卫生问题,不成比例地影响低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs).
- 全球变暖对儿童贫血患病率的影响在很大程度上仍未被探索.
- 撒哈拉以南非洲面临着儿童贫血的重大负担.
研究的目的:
- 调查每年气温上升与撒哈拉以南非洲儿童贫血患病率之间的联系.
- 根据各种排放情景,预测未来的气候变化导致的儿童贫血负担.
主要方法:
- 在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,对温度数据和儿童贫血患病率的统计分析.
- 基于预测的气候变化场景 (高,中等和低排放) 建模未来的儿童贫血病例.
主要成果:
- 年度温度上升1°C与儿童贫血的几率更高显著相关 (OR = 1.138).
- 在高排放情景下,与基线相比,2090年代,可归因的儿童贫血病例预计将在10万人/年中增加7,597例.
- 与中度和低排放场景相比,在高排放场景中,贫血病例的预计增加要大得多.
结论:
- 气候变暖构成重大威胁,增加了儿童贫血的负担,特别是在弱势群体中.
- 在LMICs的儿童不成比例地受到气候变化引起的贫血的影响.
- 对于LMICs来说,紧急实施气候缓解和适应战略至关重要,以应对这个日益增长的公共卫生挑战.
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