预测疫苗接种对马来西亚COVID-19流行病的影响,使用SEIRV隔间模型
Mei Cheng Lim1, Sarbhan Singh1, Chee Herng Lai1
1Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia.
Epidemiology and health
|October 31, 2023
概括
在马来西亚的三角洲疫情期间,COVID-19疫苗接种显著减少了病例趋势. 开发的SEIRV模型准确预测了趋势,帮助了疫情控制工作.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 马来西亚的三角洲变种激增需要了解疫苗接种的影响.
- 国家COVID-19疫苗接种计划的第三阶段提供了一个关键的疫苗接种窗口.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证易感暴露感染恢复接种疫苗 (SEIRV) 模型.
- 为了检查疫苗接种对马来西亚三角洲疫情期间COVID-19病例趋势的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用COVID-19病例和疫苗接种数据 (2021年6月21日至7月21日) 创建了SEIRV模型.
- 根据三个疫苗接种场景,预测为2021年7月22日至12月31日生成.
- 场景1:在10月31日之前80%的成年人接种疫苗;场景2:在12月31日之前80%;场景3:没有接种疫苗.
主要成果:
- 在情景1中预测的峰值病例与观察到的峰值非常相匹配.
- 观察到的峰值高于情景1,但低于情景2.
- 累计观察到的病例高于情景1且明显低于情景2.
结论:
- 在三角洲疫情爆发期间,COVID-19疫苗接种明显减少了病例趋势.
- 开发的分隔模型对于马来西亚的流行病管理和控制非常有价值.
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