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海适应气候变暖:现象学反应是否足以抵消生殖产量的变化?
M M P B Fuentes1, A J B Santos1, A Abreu-Grobois2
1Marine Turtle Research, Ecology, and Conservation Group, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA.
Global change biology
|October 31, 2023
概括
海的繁殖受到气候变化的威胁. 筑巢的现象变化不太可能完全抵消温度上升,影响化成功率和性别比率.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 海的繁殖成功取决于温度,而变暖会影响化率和胚胎雌性化.
- 预计气候变化将增加环境和海面温度,对海种群构成威胁.
- 了解适应能力,如现象变化,对于保护海至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估现象变化的潜力,以减轻温度上升对海繁殖的影响.
- 为了确定化时间所需的变化,以保持当前的化条件.
- 在温和排放场景 (SSP2-4.5) 下评估这些转变的有效性.
主要方法:
- 分析了到2100年空气,海面和沙子温度预计增加的情况.
- 模拟了预计的化转移 (26-43天前) 对化温度,化成功和幼性别比率的影响.
- 计算了保持当前生殖参数所需的现象学变化 (早或晚筑巢) 的大小.
主要成果:
- 预计温度上升范围在1.5-3°C (空气) 和1.4-2.3°C (海面) 之间.
- 预计沙子温度将上升0.58至4.17°C.
- 即使有巢移,29%的地点可能会超过安全的化温度,42%可能会减少化成功,而半个地点的性别比例也会发生变化.
- 维持当前条件所需的班次从-20至191天 (较早) 或+54至+180天 (较晚) 之间.
- 对于许多地点,不论化转移,化温度的中位数将超过当前的75百分位数范围.
结论:
- 现象变化本身不足以抵消气候变暖对海繁殖的负面影响.
- 在大多数筑巢地点保持化成功和稳定的性别比例仍然存在重大挑战.
- 海可能需要额外的适应策略或加强保护工作,以建立对气候变化的适应力.
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