开发一种可预测认知障碍患者死亡率的模型.
Taiki Sugimoto1,2, Takashi Sakurai1,2,3,4, Taiji Noguchi5
1Department of Prevention and Care Science, Research Institute, National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology, Obu, Japan.
International journal of geriatric psychiatry
|November 1, 2023
概括
一个新的模型预测了认知障碍患者的1-5年死亡率,确定了年龄和身体功能等关键风险因素. 这种工具有助于记忆诊所评估患者的预后.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 神经学 神经学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 认知障碍,包括轻度认知障碍 (MCI) 和痴呆症,影响着老年人口的很大一部分.
- 准确的死亡率预测对于记忆诊所的临床管理和资源分配至关重要.
- 识别因特定原因死亡的风险因素可以为有针对性的干预提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种可预测的模型,用于所有原因的死亡率在认知障碍患者的队列.
- 确定与该人口因特定原因死亡率相关的风险因素.
主要方法:
- 对2610名患有MCI或痴呆症的65岁以上患者进行了回顾性队列研究.
- 通过邮政调查评估的生存状况.
- 后退阶段式考克斯回归用于选择预测因子;模型使用评分方法开发.
- 使用哈雷尔的C-统计和校准图表评估的歧视和校准.
主要成果:
- 在平均4.1年的随访期间,20.8%的患者死亡.
- 确定了9个预测因素:年龄,性别,BMI,步态,身体活动,日常生活中的工具活动,认知功能,肺部疾病和糖尿病.
- 该模型对1-5年死亡率进行了良好的区分和校准 (哈雷尔的C统计:0.739-0.779).
结论:
- 已开发出一种经过验证的预测模型,用于认知障碍患者的1-5年死亡率.
- 该模型表现出良好的区分能力,并且很容易在记忆诊所设置中实现.
- 特定的预测因素与特定原因的死亡率有关,这表明有针对性的研究的潜力.
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