在尼泊尔农村地区发现结核病例2年的潜在流行病学影响的量化:基于模型的分析分析
Sourya Shrestha1, Gokul Mishra2,3, Mukesh Hamal4
1Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA sshres14@jh.edu.
结核病 (TB) 的活跃病例发现 (ACF) 显著降低了发病率,在十年内避免了数百例病例. 然而,它的效率因地方而异,需要与其他控制策略进行整合,以最大限度地影响社区.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病控制和控制传染病
背景情况:
- 活跃病例发现 (ACF) 是高负担地区的关键结核病 (TB) 干预措施.
- 关于ACF在社区层面的长期影响的证据不一致,强调需要更精细的地理数据和影响量化方法.
研究的目的:
- 在尼泊尔村发展委员会 (VDC) 层面模拟结核病传播和ACF.
- 估计IMPACT-TB ACF干预措施在不同VDC的流行病学影响和效率.
主要方法:
- 利用了VDC级结核病通知和人口统计数据 (2016-2017年).
- 开发了VDC级TB传输和ACF模型.
- 使用研究数据估计ACF影响,并比较VDC级效率.
主要成果:
- ACF广泛检测到结核病例,检测率与过去的通知有很弱的相关性.
- 预计结核病发病率的减少:14% (Chitwan),8.6% (Dhanusha),8.3% (Mahottari),3% (Makwanpur). 预计结核病发病率的减少:14% (Chitwan),8.6% (Dhanusha),8.3% (Mahottari),3% (Makwanpur). 预计结核病发病率的减少:14% (Chitwan),8.6% (Dhanusha),8.3% (Mahottari),3% (Makwanpur). 预计结核病发病率的减少:14% (Chitwan),8.6% (Dhanusha),8.3% (Mahottari),3% (Makwanpur). 预计结核病发病率的减少:
- 10年内预计避免的病例:987例 (Chitwan),422例 (Dhanusha),598例 (Mahottari),197例 (Makwanpur),其中VDC级效率有显著差异.
结论:
- ACF证实结核病的普遍流行,即使在报告率较低的VDC中也是如此.
- ACF是高效的,但它的影响在当地有所不同.
- 将ACF与其他干预措施结合起来对于显著的结核病流行病学变化至关重要.
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