机器学习用于预测候选血病患者的死亡率:可行性验证和与临床严重性得分的比较
Wei-Huan Hu1, Shang-Yi Lin2,3,4, Yuh-Jyh Hu1,5
1College of Computer Science, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan.
Mycoses
|November 1, 2023
概括
与传统得分相比,机器学习模型显著提高了血病患者的死亡率预测. 这种适应性方法提高了临床环境中的应用性和性能.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
背景情况:
- 传统的临床严重性评分 (APACHE II,SOFA,PBS,EQUAL) 在预测候群病预后方面存在局限性.
- 现有模型中预先规定的烧伤限制了适应性和临床适用性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种机器学习 (ML) 方法,用于适应性预测候群病预后.
- 提高使用患者数据的预测模型的适应性和适用性.
主要方法:
- 使用堆叠的概括来集成多个ML算法设计了一组元学习器.
- 将一个堆叠的概括模型 (SGM) 与已建立的得分 (APACHE II,SOFA,PBS,EQUAL) 进行比较,以预测14天死亡率.
主要成果:
- 在多个指标 (F1分数,MCC,AUC) 上,SGM在预测14天死亡率方面显著超过传统得分.
- 交叉验证显示出优异的性能,AUC为0.87 (p < .005).
- 一个独立的外部验证队列证明了有效的死亡率预测,AUC为0.77.
结论:
- 机器学习模型显示出改善候选血死亡率预测的巨大潜力.
- 开发的ML方法提供了比固定的临床评分系统更好的适应性和适用性.
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