怀疑心灵:美国总统大选中意外的选举结果,感知到的选举诚信和对民主的满意度
1McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
概括
公民对选举结果的期望对他们对公平的看法的影响很小. 然而,意外的选举结果,特别是在2020年,受到欺诈指控的影响,削弱了所有选民对计票的信心.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 选举研究 选举研究
- 公众的意见 公众的意见
背景情况:
- 研究始终显示,选举胜利者和失败者在选举公平性和民主满意度方面的看法之间存在差距.
- 公民对选举结果的期望对这些态度的影响仍未得到充分探索.
研究的目的:
- 调查公民的期望和选举结果的意想不到性如何影响他们对选举公平和民主满意度的态度.
- 分析意外胜利和失败对选民看法的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用来自美国国家选举研究 (ANES) 的数据,涵盖多个选举周期 (1996, 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016, 2020).
- 采用统计分析来检查选举前期望,结果意想不到和选举后态度之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 公民对选举结果的预期对他们的选举后态度的影响有限.
- 结果的意想不到性显著降低了对计票过程的信心,影响了2020年大选的失败者,独立人士,甚至是获胜者.
- 当政治人物宣传欺诈和阴谋论时,它们显然会影响公众对选举诚信的看法.
结论:
- 虽然预期起到较小的作用,但选举结果的意想不到性可能会破坏对民主进程的信任.
- 2020年选举结果凸显了公众论对选举不法行为的叙述的脆弱性,特别是当政治行为者放大时.
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