为了在医疗技术评估中产生更大的影响:伊朗新兴技术的系统动态方法
Zahra Goudarzi1, Milad Ahmadi Marzaleh2, Shekoufeh Nikfar3
1Faculty of Medical Information and Management, Health Human Resources Research Centre, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Qasr Al-Dasht St., 27 Alley, Shiraz, 7133654361, Iran.
概括
系统动态模拟 (SD) 模型增强了对伊朗新药获取的预测. 影响结果的关键因素包括供应政策,疾病率,保险和遵守.
科学领域:
- 卫生技术评估 卫生技术评估
- 制药政策 制药政策
- 系统动力学建模系统动力学建模
背景情况:
- 传统的医疗技术评估模型面临着复杂的影响.
- 系统动态模拟 (SD) 提供了一个更强大的方法.
- 预测新药获取结果需要先进的建模.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个系统动态 (SD) 模型,用于预测伊朗新药获取结果.
- 确定影响药品获取和影响的关键变量.
- 模拟和评估新药的长期影响.
主要方法:
- 综合文献审查和专家知识整合,以确定有影响力的变量.
- 应用系统思维框架和动态系统工具用于建模.
- 使用VENSIM软件进行模型验证和可靠性测试,在十年的时间里 (2018-2028) 用deferoxamine和deferasirox对thalassemia进行试点测试.
主要成果:
- 提取的变量包括初级,短期和长期的经济,健康和社会影响.
- 确定了具有高影响力的杆点:药品供应政策,进口/生产,疾病流行/发病率,保险覆盖和治疗坚持.
- 该模型有效地模拟了各种访问场景.
结论:
- 系统动态 (SD) 模型为评估伊朗卫生系统中新药效率和健康结果提供了精确的方法.
- 开发的模型可以为有关药物获取的政策决策提供信息.
- SD建模对于了解新药的多方面的影响至关重要.
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