重新审视结构人口学理论:对工业化社会的一项经验测试
1European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
PloS one
|November 2, 2023
概括
测试了结构人口学理论对劳动力供应过剩,精英生产和政治不稳定的预测. 数据显示,自动化,而不是劳动力过剩,推动了工资两极分化和不平等,挑战了理论.
科学领域:
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 劳动经济学 劳动经济学
背景情况:
- 结构人口学理论认为,劳动力供应过剩导致工资下降和精英生产过剩,导致政治不稳定.
- 现有的研究为使用美国数据测试这些预测提供了一个框架.
研究的目的:
- 在美国数据上实证测试结构人口学理论的三个核心预测.
- 确定工资两极分化,精英收入动态和政治不稳定的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 对美国数据的分析,将现有研究与精英人数和收入的实证代理进行了整合.
- 使用政治压力指数 (PSI) 来建模政治不稳定.
- 对劳动力供应过剩理论的比较分析与自动化和技术变革等替代解释对比.
主要成果:
- 劳动力供应过剩并不能解释工资两极分化或相对工资下降;自动化是主要的驱动因素.
- 精英的收入随着相对工资的下降而上升,这与理论预测的形模式相矛盾.
- 精英的过度生产并没有预测最近的政治不稳定;由技术和全球化推动的不平等现象是关键因素.
结论:
- 结构性人口学理论关于劳动力供应过剩的预测没有得到美国当前数据的支持.
- 自动化和技术变革是经济和政治趋势的更重要的驱动力,而不是劳动力供应过剩.
- 将不稳定归因于劳动力供应过剩可能会阻碍教育和不平等的有效政策制定.
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