识别弱信号,为能源部门的不确定性做好准备
Nicholas Gilmore1, Ilpo Koskinen1, Patrick Burr1
1School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, UNSW, Sydney, 2052, Australia.
Heliyon
|November 3, 2023
概括
本研究使用弱信号来为能源部门准备未来的不确定性. 积极监测这些微妙指标可以提高能源规划中的弹性和创新.
科学领域:
- 能源部门分析 能源部门分析
- 预测方法 预测方法 预测方法
- 战略规划 战略规划
背景情况:
- 由于预测不确定性,战略规划往往会忽视弱信号.
- 弱信号是新出现的问题具有重大潜在影响的微妙指标.
- 积极监测弱信号可以提高对威胁和机遇的认识.
研究的目的:
- 通过弱信号的预测工具,为能源部门准备不确定性.
- 识别和分析与能源部门未来相关的弱信号.
- 通过早期意识到新出现的问题,增强利益相关者的弹性,适应能力和创新能力.
主要方法:
- 利用一个由技术专家组成的小组来识别弱信号.
- 将已识别的信号分类为八个不同的弱信号和三个"野生卡".
- 分析了不确定性的主要来源,包括政治,经济,技术和社会因素.
主要成果:
- 确定了8个弱信号,包括电网安全,政策反应,预测错误,变电行业和洲际传输.
- 突出了三个"野生卡"信号:进口依赖,新的生存威胁和低排放技术的社会许可损失.
- 确定政治因素作为不确定性的主要来源,其次是经济,技术和社会因素.
结论:
- 弱信号对于扩大未来可能性的考虑是有价值的,而不是精确的预测.
- 利益相关者必须采取整体方法,认识到环境,法律,政治,经济,技术和社会因素的相互联系.
- 组织应根据当地环境和新出现的发展不断更新自己的弱信号列表.
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