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超越农场到的战略:设计欧洲农业生态未来的方法

Gilles Billen¹, Eduardo Aguilera², Rasmus Einarsson³

¹SU CNRS EPHE, Umr Metis 7619, Paris, France.

The Science of the total environment

|November 3, 2023

概括

欧盟"农场到餐桌"战略减少了30%的气损失,但需要一个农业生态情景来消除进口气并将环境排放减少一半. 这项研究模拟了欧洲的农业食品系统,以评估可持续性战略.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
系统生态学系统生态学

背景情况:

欧盟委员会的"农场到餐桌"战略旨在平衡粮食安全与环境保护,从而引发关于农业强化与减产的辩论.
目前的欧洲农业表现出高度的领土专业化,依赖远距离贸易,以及大量的 (N) 损失 (14 TgN/年,约70%的N输入).

研究的目的:

客观地评估农业强化与减强的论点,使用量化场景.
模拟和比较欧洲农业食品系统到2050年的三个未来情景 (通常情况,农场到子,农业生态).

主要方法:

利用农业食品系统的普遍表示 (GRAFS) 会计方法来绘制欧洲农业食品系统的流.
根据产量-受精关系和牲畜模型开发了前性场景.
在127个地理单元中分析了农田,草原,牲畜和人类消费的气流.

主要成果:

农场到餐桌 (F2F) 方案将合成肥料和料进口依赖度降低40%,N损失降低30% (至10 TgN/年,投入67%),远远低于雄心勃勃的目标.
农业生态 (AE) 场景,包括转移料生产,有机作物轮换和减少动物产品消费,消除了进口和减半排放.
在AE情景允许欧洲保持谷物,肉类和牛奶的净出口国,同时显著减少环境污染.

结论:

实现欧洲农业雄心勃勃的环境目标需要超越"农场到餐桌"战略的过渡.
实现自给自足和大幅减少环境N损失,需要采用完全农业生态的方法.
在复杂的农业食品系统中,GRAFS方法提供了一个强大的场景分析框架.

关键词:

农业生态情景农业生态情景农作物旋转农作物旋转农作物和畜牧业的重新连接欧洲农业食品系统欧洲农业食品系统农场到的战略减少一半的N废弃物场景设计场景设计

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