达尔文的羽毛:生态进化生物学,预测和政策
Ferdinando Boero1, Joachim Mergeay2
1Fondazione Dohrn, Museo Darwin Dohrn, Villa Comunale, Napoli, Italy; CNR-IAS, Genova, Italy.
Advances in marine biology
|November 3, 2023
概括
由于系统的复杂性,生态学家和进化生物学家无法准确预测未来的环境状态. 焦点应该从预测转向管理不确定性,并以生态智慧为政策提供信息.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学.
- 环境科学环境科学
- 复杂系统科学 复杂系统科学
背景情况:
- 决策者越来越需要准确的环境预测.
- 生态和进化系统是复杂的,对初始条件敏感,并且受到不可预测事件 ("黑天") 的影响.
- 查尔斯·达尔文的"一把羽毛"比喻说明了简单,可预测的系统与复杂,不可预测的系统之间的区别.
研究的目的:
- 解决生态和进化系统固有的不可预测性.
- 倡导转变生态学家和进化生物学家的使命,远离预测.
- 在科学研究和政策咨询中促进生物生态现实主义.
主要方法:
- 在生态和进化系统中对复杂性的概念分析.
- 对环境预测的可行性和影响的批评.
- 哲学考察自然历史在政策中的作用.
主要成果:
- 在复杂系统中准确预测未来的环境状态从根本上是不可能的.
- 追求预测可能是一个徒劳的努力,由资金和外部压力驱动.
- 自然历史提供了宝贵的基于知识的智慧和情景规划,以应对不确定性.
结论:
- 生态学家和进化生物学家的使命应该是帮助决策者理解和生活在不确定性之中,而不是提供不可能的预测.
- 自然历史可以为管理人类与自然之间的关系提供必要的见解,在不可预测的未来.
- 接受不确定性和专注于知识生成对于有效的环境管理至关重要.
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