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中国的畜牧业温室气体排放和减缓潜力

Dawei He¹, Xiangzheng Deng², Xinsheng Wang¹

¹Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan, 430062, China.

Journal of environmental management

|November 4, 2023

概括

由于经济和效率因素,中国畜牧业的温室气体排放在2000-2020年间略有下降. 未来的减排是通过结构优化和低碳实践来实现的,碳峰值目标可以在2030年前实现.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
农业科学农业科学
气候变化研究气候变化研究

背景情况:

畜牧业是中国温室气体排放 (GHGE) 的重要贡献者.
了解排放趋势和减排战略对于畜牧业低碳转型和实现国家气候目标至关重要.
来自肠道发酵的甲 (CH4) 是牲畜中GHGE的主要来源.

研究的目的:

计算和分析从2000年到2020年中国的LS的GHGE的时间和空间演变.
确定影响LS的GHGE变化的驱动因素.
模拟不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下未来的LS排放趋势,并评估减缓策略.

主要方法:

使用生命周期评估 (LCA) 和IPCC系数方法来计算GHGE.
逻辑平均分数指数 (LMDI) 方法分析了效率,结构,经济和人口对GHGE的影响.
使用STIRPAT模型在SSP场景下模拟未来的排放.

主要成果:

牲畜生命周期中的总GHGE从2000年的535.47万CO2e减少到2020年的532.18万CO2e.
经济因素显著增加了GHGE (在大多数省份超过40%),而效率改进也发挥了作用.
在SSP1,SSP2和SSP4情景下,畜牧业可以在2030年前达到其碳峰值.

结论:

中国的畜牧业总体GHGE略有下降,区域差异很大.
经济增长是增加排放的主要驱动因素,需要有针对性的减排战略.
优化生产结构,促进低碳能源在料和高效管理是未来减排和实现碳中和目标的关键.

关键词:

驱动因素驱动因素温室气体排放量排放量温室气体排放量畜牧业部门畜牧业部门场景预测的情况预测.

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