在存在不确定性的情况下,模拟盐水入侵风险
Dat Q Tran1, Nguyen N T Nguyen2, Minh V T Huynh2
1Florida Legislative Office of Economic and Demographic Research, Previously School of Public Policy, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA.
The Science of the total environment
|November 4, 2023
概括
人类造成的因素,不仅仅是海平面上升,显著加剧了公河三角洲的盐水入侵. 结合硬和软政策的综合战略对于可持续的水生产至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
背景情况:
- 公河三角洲是一个重要的全球大米生产者,面临着盐水入侵的重大威胁.
- 现有研究经常使用基于场景的方法,缺乏对盐水入侵驱动因素的综合评估.
- 主要驱动因素包括海平面上升,土地沉降,沉积物饥饿和上游水利基础设施.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查多个驱动因素对水入侵强度在公河三角洲的影响.
- 评估硬工程和土地利用规划政策对盐水入侵控制的经济成本和收益.
- 使用水力动力学-统计-经济模型提供综合评估.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用一个集成的水力动力学-统计-经济模型.
- 在各种气候和人为压力下分析基线情景和未来预测.
- 评估两个政策干预措施:硬工程结构和土地利用规划.
主要成果:
- 人类力量对盐水入侵的强度的贡献是海平面上升的四倍.
- 如果没有干预,海平面上升22厘米将使受影响面积超过193万公的可能性很高 (100%).
- 海平面上升,沉降和河床切割的综合影响使得超过230万公几乎是肯定的,威胁到年度大米产量.
结论:
- 硬和软政策的结合提供了一个更可持续和更具成本效益的方法来缓解盐水入侵.
- 迫切需要在公河三角洲和河流盆地改善治理和跨区域投资协调.
- 三角洲大米产区的很大一部分面临由于盐水入侵而导致年度产量损失的风险.
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