基于高空间分辨率数据的多种危害易感性模型 - - 萨利定居点 (克罗地亚Dugi otok) 的案例研究
Ante Šiljeg1,2, Silvija Šiljeg1,2, Rina Milošević3,4
1University of Zadar, Department for Geography, Franje Tuđmana 24i, Zadar, Croatia.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|November 5, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了克罗地亚首个沿海地区的多重危险易感模型,结合了地理空间技术和当地感知,绘制了土壤侵蚀,野火和洪水带来的风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理信息科学 地理信息科学
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 沿海地区因人口压力和气候变化而面临越来越多的自然灾害.
- 地中海国家对野火,洪水和土壤侵蚀具有很高的脆弱性.
- 克罗地亚的沿海地区需要量身定制的自然危险评估工具.
研究的目的:
- 为克罗地亚开发第一个多重危害易感性模型 (MHSM),重点关注萨利定居点.
- 将地理空间技术 (GST) 与当地感知调查相结合,以进行全面的风险评估.
- 为了建模土壤侵蚀,野火和暴雨洪水的易感性.
主要方法:
- 使用多标准的GIS分析和分析层次流程开发了个别危险易感模型 (土壤侵蚀,野火,暴雨洪水).
- 创建了MHSM的两个版本:一个具有平等权重,另一个包含公众对权重的看法.
- 在模型开发和ROC曲线准确性验证中使用了32个标准的非常高分辨率 (VHR) 数据.
主要成果:
- 据MHSM 1显示,58%的地区是中度易感的,27%是高度易感的,主要是靠近基础设施.
- MHSM 2显示了类似的空间模式,尽管公众的看法将野火列为最高风险,其次是洪水和土壤侵蚀.
- 关于土壤侵蚀易受性的公众认知与GIS-MCDA模型之间发现了显著的差异.
结论:
- 开发的MHSM提供了一个强大的框架,用于评估脆弱沿海地区的多重危险易感性.
- 整合本地感知提供了有价值的见解,尽管与科学模型的差异需要进一步调查.
- 该方法框架可适用于其他地中海地区的多重危险评估.
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