巴基斯坦农业的可持续生计资本和气候变化适应:VIABLE框架中的结构方程建模分析
Muhammad Mobeen1,2,3, Khondokar H Kabir4,5,6, Uwe A Schneider4
1Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Germany.
Heliyon
|November 6, 2023
概括
可持续的生计资本是农民的关键.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 可持续的生计 可持续的生计
背景情况:
- 气候变化对农业生产力和农民生计构成重大风险,特别是在像巴基斯坦的印度河平原这样的脆弱地区.
- 有效的适应策略需要了解生计资本,投资,农业实践和环境因素的相互作用.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了这些因素在塑造农民适应能力方面的综合作用.
研究的目的:
- 评估可持续生计资本在巴基斯坦印度河平原农民气候变化适应中的作用.
- 调查投资和农业目的的调解效应,以及气候和非气候因素的缓和影响.
- 在VIABLE (环境系统中基于代理人的交互和学习的价值观和投资) 框架内分析利益相关者的行动,优先事项和目标.
主要方法:
- 使用五点利克特级别的结构化问卷被开发出来,收集有关生计资本,适应策略和影响因素的数据.
- 现场数据来自巴基斯坦旁遮普省和辛德省灌农业地区的800名农民.
- 部分最小平方结构方程建模 (VIABLE-SEM) 用于分析VIABLE框架内的复杂关系.
主要成果:
- 可持续生计资本被确定为农民适应战略中最重要的决定因素 (β = 0.57,效果大小 = 0.503).
- 发现农业的主要目的,投资选择和农业约束的影响力较小.
- 非气候因素对资本与适应关系有负面影响 (β = -0.156),而气候因素则对资本与适应关系有积极影响 (β = 0.050),有趣的是,它们增强了适应能力.
结论:
- 生计资本是印度河平原 (巴基斯坦) 农民适应气候变化的主要驱动力.
- 虽然非气候因素可能会带来挑战,但气候和非气候影响,当存在时,可以增强农民的适应能力.
- 调查结果为政策制定者和研究人员提供了关键的见解,帮助他们设计和实施针对性,有效的农业适应战略,以应对气候脆弱的地区.
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