关于关税同盟的最佳规模和组成:一种进化性的方法
Takfarinas Saber1, Dominik Naeher2, Philippe De Lombaerde3,4
1Lero - The Irish Software Research Centre, School of Computer Science, National University of Ireland Galway, Galway, Ireland.
概括
这项研究模拟了最佳的海关联盟,发现少数大型和几个小型联盟可以促进全球贸易和经济增长. 该方法平衡了共同的外交政策与多样化的国家经济,以获得更好的结果.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 关税同盟促进了市场准入和区域内贸易.
- 共同的外部贸易政策是加入海关联盟的关键条件.
- 不同的经济结构可能会阻碍大型海关联盟的形成.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的数学方法来建模最佳的海关联盟规模和组成.
- 通过使用全球贸易和经济数据,识别关税联盟的非主导配置.
- 分析全球效益与个别国家影响之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 公式为一个双目标组合的非线性问题.
- 采用了一个多目标进化算法 (NSGA-II).
- 利用了200个国家的贸易流和经济特征数据.
主要成果:
- 确定了445种配置,优于目前的关税联盟的全球格局.
- 发现最佳配置通常有利于全球经济的平均水平,但不一定有利于每个国家.
- 最有效的结构涉及大型和小型海关联盟的混合.
结论:
- 关税联盟的最佳结构可能涉及几大和多个小区块的等级方法.
- 数学建模和进化算法可以揭示高效的全球贸易配置.
- 为了最大限度地获得好处,平衡共同的外部政策与各种各样的国家经济需求至关重要.
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