在铜市场中发现价格泡:来自GSADF测试方法的证据
Yushan Peng1, Menglin Ni1, Xiaoying Wang1
1School of Business Administration, Shandong Women's University, Jinan, China.
PloS one
|November 6, 2023
概括
1980年至2023年间,有7次铜价泡发生,原因包括日本需求,全球金融危机,中国等因素.
科学领域:
- 商品市场 商品市场 商品市场
- 金融计量经济学 金融计量经济学
- 经济史 经济史 经济史
背景情况:
- 铜价受到波动和投机泡的影响.
- 了解历史铜价动态对于市场稳定至关重要.
- 之前的研究还没有全面确定多个铜价泡及其驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 为了识别和约定铜价中的多个投机泡.
- 分析每个已识别的铜价泡背后的基本驱动因素.
- 调查铜价泡的宏观经济和市场特异性决定因素.
主要方法:
- 应用一般化Supremum增强Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) 测试来检测泡.
- 从1980年1月到2023年3月的历史铜价数据的分析.
- 逻辑回归用于确定各种因素对铜泡的影响.
主要成果:
- 在铜价中发现了七个不同的投机泡.
- 早期的泡与日本工业需求和供应限制有关.
- 中期泡受到全球金融危机和中国需求的影响.
- 最新的泡归因于COVID-19后的经济复苏.
- 价格,铜产量,所有金属指数和GDP都对泡产生了积极的影响.
- 中国的铜进口和贵金属价格对泡产生了负面影响.
结论:
- 该研究使用GSADF方法成功识别了多个历史铜价泡.
- 具体的经济事件和市场因素被证实是这些泡的关键决定因素.
- 调查结果为投资者提供了宝贵的见解,以减轻铜市场的风险.
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