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在北美,极端高温的指数增长
Ali Davariashtiyani1, Mohsen Taherkhani2, Seyyedfaridoddin Fattahpour1
1Department of Civil, Materials, and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Scientific reports
|November 6, 2023
概括
全球变暖正在增加极端高温事件. 微小的温度上升可以使严重热浪的可能性增加一倍,许多地区在2100年之前都会面临每年一次的热浪.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
- 统计气候学 统计气候学
背景情况:
- 预计全球变暖将增加极端气候事件的频率和强度,包括热浪.
- 近几十年来,极端高温呈上升趋势,气候模型预测到2100年气候将加速变暖.
- 目前罕见的极端高温事件预计将成为常见的夏季事件,影响全球各种系统.
研究的目的:
- 调查由于局部变暖趋势而导致的极端高温事件频率的持续变化.
- 分析局部平均温度升高与极端高温事件超标概率之间的关系.
- 根据未来的变暖情景,评估50年极端高温事件的预测频率.
主要方法:
- 利用了几十年来来自数千个北美气象站的观测数据的极端价值理论.
- 分析了与预计的局部变暖趋势相关的极端高温事件频率的连续变化.
- 研究了平均局部温度和超过50年极端热量事件的几率之间的指数关系.
主要成果:
- 超过50年极端高温事件的几率随着当地平均温度的上升而呈指数级增加.
- 当地平均气温的0.5-1°C上升可以使大多数车站超过50年极端高温事件的几率翻倍.
- 对于96%的站点来说,预计50年极端高温事件的几率将大约每20年或更早地翻一番.
- 在2100年之前,北美80%的电站预计每年将经历超过50年的极端高温事件.
结论:
- 当地变暖趋势显著增加了极端高温事件的可能性.
- 未来的预测表明,北美地区严重热浪的频率将迅速升级.
- 这些发现强调了迫切需要适应战略,以减轻极端热量增加的影响.
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