开发和验证经典热中风患者生存预后模型:一个多中心研究
Yu Wang1, Donglin Li2, Zongqian Wu3
1Department of Emergency Medicine, Rongxian People's Hospital, Rongxian, 643100, China.
Scientific reports
|November 7, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了一个经典热中风 (CHS) 患者的生存预测模型. 该模型准确地识别高风险个体,帮助临床管理和改善患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 临床医学 临床医学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 经典热中风 (CHS) 是一种严重的,危及生命的疾病,需要准确的预后工具.
- 有效的治疗决策和风险分层取决于可靠的CHS患者预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发和外部验证一种预测模型,用于诊断患有经典热中风的住院患者的生存.
- 确定与CHS死亡率相关的关键预后因素.
主要方法:
- 追溯性研究设计,涉及来自多家医院的培训和外部验证队伍.
- 使用LASSO和多变量考克斯回归来确定预后因素.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准图和卡普兰-梅尔生存分析评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 鉴定了社会隔离,自我照顾能力,并发症,体温,心率,GCS,PCT,AST和腹作为显著的预后因素.
- 实现了高预测性能,AUC为0.994 (培训) 和0.901 (验证).
- 模型预测与实际生存结果之间有很强的一致性,有效地区分风险组.
结论:
- 一个验证的预后预测模型已经开发了经典的热中风.
- 该模型表现出有希望的预测能力,可以在临床环境中用于CHS患者管理.
- 该工具可以帮助医疗保健专业人员进行CHS风险分层和治疗决策.
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