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长江三角洲碳排放与经济发展之间的全度关系:多源遥感夜间光数据的融合
Jianhui Xu1, Qingfang Liu2, Ning Ruan3
1School of Geographic Information and Tourism, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou, 239099, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|November 7, 2023
概括
这项研究使用CNN-BiLSTM模拟了长江三角洲碳排放,发现经济发展与排放之间存在负的全度关系. 这表明经济增长超过了碳排放的增加,这表明经济扩张疲软的阶段.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 了解碳排放与经济发展之间的关系对于旨在减少排放和实现可持续增长的政策制定至关重要.
- 长江三角洲 (YRD) 是一个关键的经济区域,分析这种关系可以为有针对性的环境政策提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 从2000年到2020年模拟和分析长江三角洲的碳排放.
- 探索YRD经济发展与碳排放之间的全度关系.
- 确定模拟碳排放的最准确模型.
主要方法:
- 利用国防气象卫星计划/运营线扫描系统 (DMSP/OLS) 和NOAA-20可见红外成像放射仪套件 (VIIRS) 的夜光数据集来模拟碳排放.
- 采用全度增长模型来研究经济指标与碳排放之间的关系.
- 我们比较了四种碳排放模拟模型:线性拟合,支持向量机,随机森林和卷积神经网络-双向长期短期记忆 (CNN-BiLSTM) 深度学习.
主要成果:
- 在模拟碳排放方面,CNN-BiLSTM深度学习模型展示了最高的准确性.
- 年度碳排放总体上呈上升趋势,上海的增长率最高,丽水的增长率最低.
- 高碳排放地区集中在核心城市集群中,包括上海,南京和杭州.
- 经济发展和碳排放之间的全度关系主要是负的,这表明碳排放的相对增长率低于经济发展.
结论:
- 在YRD中,CNN-BiLSTM模型对准确的碳排放模拟非常有效.
- 目前,YRD的经济发展正处于"疲软扩张"的阶段,其特点是经济增长超过了碳排放增加.
- 调查结果为决策者提供了宝贵的见解,旨在平衡经济发展与该地区的碳排放减少战略.
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