2011-2019年巴西结核病发病率和死亡率的趋势:根据拐点进行分析
José Nildo de Barros Silva Júnior1, Rodrigo de Macedo Couto1, Layana Costa Alves1
1Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde Ministry of Health Brasília, DF Brazil Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil.
概括
巴西的结核病发病率从2011-2015年开始下降,然后增加到2019年. 在此期间,死亡率没有显著的趋势变化.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病研究 传染病研究
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 仍然是一个重大的全球卫生挑战.
- 监测结核病发病率和死亡率的时间趋势对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 巴西是一个高负担的国家,需要对其结核病流行病学模式进行持续分析.
研究的目的:
- 分析巴西结核病发病率和死亡率的时间趋势.
- 确定结核病发病率的具体变化时期和区域差异.
- 为巴西结核病控制的公共卫生战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 生态时间序列研究设计.
- 数据来源于巴西的可报告疾病信息系统和死亡率信息系统 (2011-2019).
- 加入点回归分析以确定趋势转折点.
主要成果:
- 平均结核病发病率为每10万人口中的35.8例.
- 发病率每年下降1.9% (2011-2015年),然后每年增加2.4% (2015-2019年).
- 平均结核病死亡率为每10万人口中2.2例,没有显著的整体趋势变化.
结论:
- 巴西经历了结核病发病率趋势的转变,从下降到增加,大约在2015年.
- 在研究期间,结核病死亡率没有显著的趋势变化.
- 像亚马逊州和里约热内卢这样的特定州表现出独特的发病率和死亡率模式,需要有针对性的关注.
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