美国农业社区的社会脆弱性和气候风险评估
Tugkan Tanir1, Enes Yildirim2, Celso M Ferreira3
1Earth System Science, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye.
The Science of the total environment
|November 8, 2023
概括
这项研究表明,农业社区面临洪水和干旱的重大风险. 加利福尼亚州的汉博尔特和蒙哥马利 (TX) 等县的综合风险最高,全国估计的作物损失超过10亿美元.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 洪水和干旱严重影响农业和粮食安全,社会经济因素对社区造成不成比例的影响.
- 了解与气候有关的危险对于制定减缓策略以保护弱势群体至关重要.
- 现有的研究缺乏全面的全国性评估,将社会脆弱性与洪水和干旱风险相结合.
研究的目的:
- 引入一个整体的方法来评估美国农业社区的干旱和洪水风险.
- 将社会脆弱性指标与干旱和洪水暴露数据合并,以确定易受影响的地区.
- 为农业社区的脆弱性提供洞察力,并为有针对性的风险减轻工作提供信息.
主要方法:
- 来自联邦机构 (FEMA,USACE,USDA) 的适应数据集和方法.
- 进行了全国性的社会脆弱性评估.
- 综合社会脆弱性指标,预计每年因干旱和洪水风险造成的损失.
主要成果:
- 在全国范围内确定了30个社会最脆弱的县.
- 加利福尼亚州的各个县 (门多西诺,索诺马,洪堡,埃尔多拉多,弗雷斯诺,克恩) 呈现出高干旱暴露率和预期的年度损失.
- 洪堡 (加利福尼亚州) 和蒙哥马利 (德克萨斯州) 县的干旱和洪水风险总和最高.
- 估计超过10亿美元的作物损失,加利福尼亚州在各种作物中面临最严重的损失.
结论:
- 该研究为决策者提供了关键数据,以了解农业地区的气候风险.
- 调查结果强调了在确定的脆弱社区需要有针对性的风险减轻活动.
- 综合方法为评估和管理农业中复合气候相关风险提供了一个框架.
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