人工超级智能的能源挑战
Klaus M Stiefel1, Jay S Coggan1
1NeuroLinx Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, United States.
Frontiers in artificial intelligence
|November 9, 2023
概括
由于巨大的能源需求,当代计算技术限制了人工超级智能 (ASI). 目前的架构使ASI不太可能在没有能源效率或新技术的重大突破的情况下实现.
科学领域:
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 能源科学 能源科学
背景情况:
- 当前的半导体技术是人工智能发展的基础.
- 追求人工通用智能 (AGI) 和人工超级智能 (ASI) 是人工智能研究的一个主要目标.
- 现有的AI系统面临着日益增长的能源需求.
研究的目的:
- 分析当前计算技术对人工超级智能 (ASI) 的可行性施加的能源限制.
- 提出一个框架来估计ASI的能源需求.
- 根据当前的技术轨迹,评估ASI出现的可能性.
主要方法:
- 在当代计算中分析能源消耗.
- 开发"Erasi方程" (人工超级智能的能源需求) 来估计ASI的能源需求.
- 估计的ASI能源需求与全球能源可用性的比较.
主要成果:
- 由于高能耗要求,当代半导体计算对ASI开发构成了重大障碍.
- 一个ASI将是大小的数量级比人类大脑更低的能源效率.
- 假设的ASI的能源需求可能超过工业化国家的可用电力.
- 当前人工智能研究的分散方法进一步加剧了效率问题.
结论:
- 鉴于当前的计算机架构和能源限制,在可预见的未来,ASI的出现不太可能.
- 仿生技术和新的技术方法可能为克服这些能源限制提供潜在的解决方案.
- 重新思考人工智能发展范式对于未来的进步至关重要.
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