臭氧相关死亡的社会成本与甲排放的影响
Erin E McDuffie1, Marcus C Sarofim1, William Raich2
1Office of Atmospheric Protection, Climate Change Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.
概括
大气中的甲排放导致数千人死亡,并且由于增加臭氧层而造成重大经济损害. 包括这种甲-臭氧通路可以使甲 (SC-CH4) 的社会成本增加一倍.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候经济学 气候经济学
背景情况:
- 大气中的甲影响气候和空气质量,影响人类健康和经济.
- 目前的甲 (SC-CH4) 的社会成本指标往往忽略了间接的臭氧形成影响.
- 甲对臭氧的间接影响对于全面的气候损害评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化甲引起的臭氧生产造成的呼吸道死亡和经济损失.
- 将甲-臭氧通路整合到SC-CH4框架中.
- 评估甲间接影响现有的货币化损害.
主要方法:
- 利用全球模型模拟和BenMAP网络工具来估计健康影响.
- 量化呼吸道死亡与2020年甲脉冲增加的臭氧有关.
- 用2%的拉姆西折扣率将年度损失货币化和折扣为现值.
主要成果:
- 估计全球呼吸道死亡人数为每百万公甲760 (95%CI:330-1200).
- 计算出全球净当前损失为1800美元/mT (95%CI:760-2800美元/Mt CH4).
- 发现,包括甲-臭氧机制可以使当前的SC-CH4.4增加一倍.
结论:
- 甲-臭氧通路对死亡率和经济损失做出了重大贡献.
- 经济估计对臭氧健康风险,前体排放和社会经济因素敏感.
- 为未来的集成到SC-CH4框架中,开发了一个缩小形式的模型.
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