相关实验视频
Updated: Jul 11, 2025

06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
993
推进美国未来气候影响的估计
Corinne Hartin1, Erin E McDuffie1, Karen Noiva2
1Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Protection, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA.
概括
到2090年,气候变化将造成数万亿美元的损失,主要是由于空气污染和温度变化等健康影响. 这些经济和物质影响不成比例地影响弱势群体,并因美国的不同地区而异.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 了解气候变化的经济和物理后果对于有效的政策至关重要.
- 估计气候破坏的位置,时间和受益者至关重要.
- 适应策略减轻风险的能力需要仔细考虑.
研究的目的:
- 快速预测气候变化在连续美国的多个部门,地区和人口的经济和物理影响.
- 利用损害和影响评估框架 (FrEDI) 模型进行详细的影响评估.
- 提供美国境内气候变化影响的详细说明.
主要方法:
- 采用了减少复杂性的模型,即损害和影响评估框架 (FrEDI).
- 模拟了1万种未来情景来预测气候驱动的破坏.
- 分析了美国各行各业,地区和人口群体的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计到2090年,国家气候驱动损害平均每年将达到2.9万亿美元.
- 人类健康的影响,包括温度和空气污染 (O3和PM2.5) 的死亡率,构成了大多数长期损害.
- 人均损失的区域差异很大,东南地区面临着最高的预计成本.
结论:
- 预计随着时间的推移,气候变化将大幅增加国家净损失.
- 由于空气质量变化,社会不平等可能会加剧,对某些种族群体产生不成比例的影响.
- 该研究提供了迄今为止美国气候变化影响最详细的分布,将预测延长到2300.
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