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关于温度归因于健康负担的预测研究中的成就和差距:我们应该走向哪里?
Masna Rai1,2, Susanne Breitner1,2, Siqi Zhang1
1Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Center Munich, Neuherberg, Germany.
Frontiers in epidemiology
|November 9, 2023
概括
由于各种假设和方法,温度对未来健康负担的预测是不确定的. 需要更多的研究来开发可靠的方法来准确评估与气候有关的健康影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候流行病学 气候流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 预测未来与温度相关的健康负担 (死亡率,住院病例) 对政策和适应至关重要.
- 目前的研究面临着来自气候/人口模型和不同的假设的重大不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 审查温度归因健康负担预测研究的现状.
- 识别现有方法论中的共同点,差异和知识差距.
- 为开发更强大的未来预测方法提供基础.
主要方法:
- 关于温度相关健康负担预测现有文献的叙述性综述.
- 在预测模型中分析假设,纳入因素和适应策略.
- 综合当前的证据,并确定研究缺口.
主要成果:
- 在未来的健康负担预测中仍然存在重大不确定性.
- 研究中的假设和方法的差异是相当大的.
- 缺乏可靠的证据和气候流行病学方面的差距阻碍了准确的预测.
结论:
- 需要一种标准化,强大的方法来预测未来的健康负担.
- 解决气候流行病学知识差距对于改善预测至关重要.
- 改进的预测技术将有助于调整卫生政策以适应气候变化影响.
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