根据伊朗地区未来气候变化情景的干旱趋势预测
Maryam Bayatavrkeshi1, Monzur Alam Imteaz2, Ozgur Kisi3,4
1Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
PloS one
|November 9, 2023
概括
未来的气候变化将使伊朗的干旱频率增加,A2情景显示最严重的条件. 蒸发转化率的增加和降水量的减少将加剧水资源短缺,特别是在温暖的地区.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球干旱特征产生重大影响.
- 评估未来的干旱模式对于伊朗等脆弱地区的水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种气候变化情景,调查伊朗干旱特征的潜在变化.
- 分析干旱的频率和严重程度,使用标准化降雨蒸发透气指数 (SPEI).
主要方法:
- 利用了来自伊朗30个同视站 (1992-2010) 的每日天气数据.
- 在LARS-WG中使用HadCM3统计模型,根据A1B,A2和B1情景预测未来的天气条件 (2011-2012).
- 分析了SPEI的变化,以评估34年的三个时期的干旱发生情况.
主要成果:
- 在所有情景中都观察到潜在蒸发透气的持续上升趋势和降雨的下降趋势.
- 预计干旱发生率将大幅增加,到最后一个时期,干旱发生率将从8.89%上升到27.27% (B1),从7.63%上升到35.08% (A1B),从6.73%上升到40.8% (A2).
- A2情景预测最严重的干旱条件,在温暖的气候中干旱期更长,在潮湿/凉爽的地区,干旱期的比例更高.
结论:
- 预计到本世纪末,伊朗的水资源短缺问题将变得更加严重.
- 谨慎的水资源管理策略是必不可少的,特别是在温暖的月份,因为降水和蒸发之间的显著差异.
- 调查结果强调,伊朗迫切需要采取气候变化适应和减缓措施.
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