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一种随机编程方法来进行医院容量评估
Robert L Burdett1,2, Paul Corry1, Belinda Spratt1
1School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
本研究提出了一种用于医院容量规划的新型随机编程方法,包括可变的治疗时间. 该方法优化了案件数量,同时管理超能力的风险,帮助医疗保健基础设施的适应.
科学领域:
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 随机优化 随机优化的优化
背景情况:
- 准确的医院能力评估对于有效的医疗保健服务至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往无法解释患者治疗和住院时间的随机变化.
- 医疗保健基础设施的战略规划需要强大的方法来处理不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 为战略性医院能力评估 (QAHC) 引入一种新的风险逆向随机编程方法.
- 将随机治疗持续时间和住院时间纳入医院容量分析.
- 确定在指定的时间框架内可处理的最大案件负载和超出容量的风险门.
主要方法:
- 开发一个定制的反风险随机编程模型.
- 对概率约束的样本平均化技术的应用.
- 实现一种新的两阶层层次解决方案,将元启发学和二进制搜索结合起来,用于复杂的混合整数编程模型.
主要成果:
- 提出的方法有效地确定了在概率约束下最大的案件负载.
- 两个阶段的层次解决方案在计算上是高效的.
- 案例研究和数值测试证明了该方法在分析医院产出的有效性.
结论:
- 开发的随机编程方法为医院容量规划提供了更好的清晰度和洞察力.
- 这种方法可以更好地校准医疗保健基础设施以满足未来的需求,包括流行病情景.
- 这种新的方法在战略医疗资源管理方面取得了重大进展.
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