为了改善类型含水层的修复结果,使用代组合更光滑的类型含水层
Prashanth Khambhammettu, Philippe Renard1, John Doherty2
1University of Neuchatel, Neuchatel, Switzerland.
Ground water
|November 9, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种使用旅行试点 (TRIPS) 和代整体平滑器 (IES) 的新方法,以改进地下水污染建模. 该方法提高了污染物度和头部的预测,有助于为决策量化不确定性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文地质学 水文地质学
- 地质统计学 在地质统计学
背景情况:
- 污染的地点往往具有复杂的地质面分布,就像低透度矩阵中的高透度通道一样.
- 低透区作为持久的溶液来源,使地下水的清洁复杂化,并增加长期风险.
- 在这种异质系统中估计地下参数是具有挑战性的,因为不连续性阻碍了反向问题的解决.
研究的目的:
- 介绍和评估一种新的方法来解决地下水污染研究中的分类反向问题.
- 使用旅行试点 (TRIPS) 和代整体平滑器 (IES) 进行参数估计和不确定性量化.
- 评估先前地质假设和数据可用性对预测准确性的影响.
主要方法:
- 模拟地下水流和溶解物运输在一个假设的含水层使用MODFLOW 6.
- 使用一个代集团光滑器 (IES) 来生成后方参数集.
- 假设TRIPS和近似的多高斯先验为分类参数分布.
主要成果:
- IES有效地采集了后部分布的样本,即使在近似的地质前期,也可以准确地预测头部和度.
- 高度的参数化和历史匹配提高了参数集对特定预测的实用性.
- 大致的地质先验证明不足以准确地进行质量预测,这凸显了先验地质信息的重要性.
结论:
- 基于整体的方法有效量化了地下水污染预测中的不确定性.
- 准确的地质预先信息对于可靠的大规模运输预测至关重要.
- 决策者可以利用这种方法进行明智的风险评估和整治战略开发.
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