新发现的社会行为发现的高可复制性是可以实现的
John Protzko1,2, Jon Krosnick3, Leif Nelson4
1Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. protzko@gmail.com.
Nature human behaviour
|November 9, 2023
概括
严格的科学方法,包括确认测试和预注册,显著提高了新发现的复制率,达到86%. 这表明了加强研究实践在确保可靠的科学证据方面的有效性.
科学领域:
- 科学研究中的可复制性
- 实验心理学 实验心理学
- 方法论 方法论 方法论
背景情况:
- 复制科学发现的普遍失败引起了人们对研究可靠性的担忧.
- 存在不确定性,即是否低于最佳的实施或非最佳的方法导致不可重复性.
研究的目的:
- 调查新型实验发现的潜在可复制性.
- 评估严格提高实践对复制率的影响.
主要方法:
- 四个协调的实验室调查了16个新的实验发现.
- 使用的提高严格性的做法:确认性测试,大样本大小,预注册和方法透明度.
- 通过显著性测试定义的复制成功 (P < 0.05).
主要成果:
- 复制尝试的成功率达到86%,远高于历史平均水平 (约50%).
- 在进行跨实验室复制时,复制效应大小为原始研究效应大小的97%.
- 观察到的复制率略高于基于效应和样本大小的最大预期率.
结论:
- 提高严谨度的方法大大提高了新的科学发现的可复制性.
- 这些实践促进了对新型实验发现可靠性的更大信心.
- 这项研究证实了结构化,透明的方法对于强大的科学进步的有用性.
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