通过考虑无意义的发现,将参与恐怖主义暴力的情境化:使用无效结果和时间视角来更好地理解激进化结果
Bart Schuurman1, Sarah L Carthy1
1Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, The Hague, The Netherlands.
PloS one
|November 10, 2023
概括
出版偏见阻碍了恐怖主义研究. 这项研究发现,时间因素,而不是静态特征,更好地预测参与极端暴力,这表明认知转变是关键.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
背景情况:
- 发表偏见,特别是关于零发现的不足报告,在社会科学中很普遍.
- 这一问题对恐怖主义研究等新兴领域尤其不利,可能导致II型错误和不支持的理论的持续存在.
- 对重大结果的选择性报告阻碍了科学进步和证据综合.
研究的目的:
- 调查与参与恐怖主义暴力有关的结构性和个人级别的变量.
- 探索极端化的时间动态及其与特定变量之间的关系.
- 挑战预先处置风险因素的概念,并强调认知变化的作用.
主要方法:
- 对来自欧洲和北美的右翼和圣战极端分子组成的数据集 (N = 206) 的分析.
- 对与恐怖主义暴力有重大线性关联的结构性和个人级别变量的检查.
- 考虑方法因素,包括非随机缺失数据分布和时间影响.
主要成果:
- 几个结构和个体变量没有显示与参与恐怖主义暴力有显著的线性关联.
- 某些变量仅在个体激进化轨迹的特定时期 (开始前或之后) 显示出显著的关联.
- 静态的,二进制的结构 (例如,接触不同观点) 并没有预测暴力,但它们的影响随着时间的推移而变化.
结论:
- 激进化可能更多是由认知转变驱动的,使极端的意识形态镜头成为可能,而不是预先处置生物压力因素.
- 时间视角,而不是静态视角,对于理解与激进化结果相关的变量至关重要.
- 解决恐怖主义研究中的出版偏见对于推进该领域至关重要.
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