蛇咬病流行病学,结果和埃斯瓦提尼的多集群风险建模
Sara Padidar1,2,3, Ara Monadjem1,4, Thea Litschka-Koen2,3
1Department of Biological Sciences, University of Eswatini, Kwaluseni, Eswatini.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|November 10, 2023
概括
埃斯瓦提尼的蛇咬伤风险在农村农业地区最高,特别是在夏天的晚上. 这项研究确定了高风险区域,以指导预防和治疗,旨在减少蛇咬病率和死亡率.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 毒理学 毒理学 毒理学
背景情况:
- 毒蛇咬伤是全球重要的健康问题,但关于发生率和严重性的数据有限,阻碍了资源分配.
- 世界卫生组织 (WHO) 蛇策略的目标是到2030年将发病率和死亡率减少一半.
- 了解埃斯瓦提尼国家特定的蛇病流行病学对于有针对性的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查埃斯瓦提尼国家毒蛇咬伤的流行病学和结果.
- 确定与蛇风险和不良结果相关的社会地理因素.
- 开发风险模型,以改善蛇的预防和治疗策略.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自埃斯瓦提尼卫生部 (2019-2021) 的程序数据.
- 开发了一种蛇物种丰富性地图,使用对毒蛇发生情况的利基建模.
- 制定了综合物种丰富性,地理空间数据和报告的蛇咬伤风险指数,通过多变量集群建模分析.
主要成果:
- 在埃斯瓦提尼,平均每年记录有466次蛇咬伤事件.
- 咬伤发生在全国范围内,在夏天的晚上达到顶峰;在农村和农业地区确定了高风险地区.
- 两个集群风险地图突出显示了蛇的高概率和不良结果的高概率的区域.
结论:
- 蛇咬风险模型可以引导斯瓦西尼实现世卫组织2030年减少蛇咬病率和死亡率50%的目标.
- 鉴定到的高蛇咬伤率和区域抗毒物供应挑战需要改善农村卫生保健工作者的预防和治疗工具.
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