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缓解中国的完全化温室气体排放和对缓解气候变化的影响

Liya Guo¹, Xuekun Fang^1,2

¹College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China.

Environmental science & technology

|November 10, 2023

概括

中国中国中国中国.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
气候变化研究气候变化研究
大气化学大气化学

背景情况:

完全化温室气体 (FFGHG),如SF,NF和PFC,具有很高的全球变暖潜力和很长的大气寿命.
这些强大的气体对气候变化作出了重大贡献,需要有针对性的减缓策略.

研究的目的:

预测中国未来的温室气体排放趋势.
评估FFGHG的减缓潜力.
评估FFGHG排放减少对中国碳中和气候变化减缓目标的影响.

主要方法:

使用了SF₆,NF₃和关键PFC (CF₄,C₂F₆,C₃F₈,C-C₄F₈) 的排放投影模型.
开发和分析了三个"技术上可行的"减缓场景 (2030,2050,2060).
量化了因FFGHG缓解而导致的全球气温上升的潜在减少.

主要成果:

根据一项业务如常 (BAU) 情景,预计中国的FFGHG排放量将大幅增加,到2060年达到5061356万CO2eq-yr-1.
实施缓解策略可以在2060年之前大幅减少FFGHG排放,从4978Mt CO2eq yr-1 (技术可行2030) 到98164Mt CO2eq yr-1 (技术可行2060).
温室气体排放减缓可以抑制温度上升0.0080.013°C,相比之下,在BAU情景下,0.0130.026°C.

结论:

中国的温室气体排放量正处于日益增长的轨道上,这对气候目标构成了挑战.
存在相当大的缓解潜力,通过技术实施可以实现显著的减缓.
协调政策对于有效的FFGHG排放控制和实现碳中和是至关重要的.

关键词:

中国中国中国中国.碳中和是指碳中立的气候变化气候变化气候变化完全化温室气体的温室气体.减轻风险的缓解方法

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