将新的多病症指数与其他多病症指标进行比较,以预测残疾发展轨迹
Hui-Wen Xu1, Hui Liu2, Yan Luo1
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China; Peking University Medical Informatics Center, Beijing, China.
Journal of affective disorders
|November 10, 2023
概括
一个新的多病症指数准确地预测了中国老年人的残疾轨迹. 指数和简单条件计数是评估健康和预测该人口未来残疾的有价值工具.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 为了预测残疾轨迹,多病症的最佳测量仍在争论中.
- 这项研究解决了对老龄化人口有效多病症评估的需求.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的多病症指数,用于预测残疾轨迹.
- 为了比较该指数的预测性能与50岁及以上的中国成年人现有的措施.
主要方法:
- 利用了中国健康和退休长度调查 (2011-2018) 中的17649名参与者 (年龄≥50岁) 的数据.
- 在训练集 (70%) 上使用后勤回归开发了一个加权的多病症指数.
- 在测试组 (30%) 上使用C统计,IDI和NRI对比指数,条件计数和潜在类分析模式.
主要成果:
- 与条件计数相比,开发的多病症指数显示出优异的预测性能.
- 条件计数超过了通过潜在类分析确定的多病态模式.
- 在新指数中,慢性疾病的权重从1.04到2.55.5不等.
结论:
- 新的多病症指数显示为预测中国老年人残疾轨迹的理想测量方法.
- 条件计数是推的替代方案,因为它的简单性和强大的预测能力.
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