空调对日本城市热相关死亡率的净影响
Paul L C Chua1, Yuya Takane2, Chris Fook Sheng Ng1
1Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Environment international
|November 11, 2023
概括
空调可以防止热死亡,但其室外的热量释放有助于增加死亡率. 需要仔细考虑AC作为一种适应性策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 城市气候学 城市气候学
背景情况:
- 空调可以减轻热量对健康的影响,但会释放人为热量,可能对城市人口造成伤害.
- 这项研究量化了日本城市在全球变暖情景下使用AC的过度热相关死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定可归因于来自AC的人为热量的过度热相关死亡率.
- 测量AC使用对与热有关的死亡的整体保护作用.
主要方法:
- 使用天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型与BEP+BEM.EM进行模拟的每日平均温度.
- 使用两阶段时间序列分析生成热死亡风险函数.
- 通过将模拟温度与风险函数相结合,估计可以避免和不可避免的死亡.
主要成果:
- 在各种变暖情景下,AC使用的城市温度略有增加 (0.046°C至0.181°C).
- 这种温度上升与3.1-3.5%的与热有关的死亡有关.
- 空调使用可以避免36-47%的与热有关的死亡.
结论:
- 交流提供了对热死亡率的显著保护.
- 由于人为热量释放的不可避免的死亡率,需要仔细考虑AC作为适应策略.
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