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(不) 监管的成本:缩小地球轨道和可持续空间治理的需要
Darrell Martin-Lawson1, Stefania Paladini2, Krishnendu Saha1
1BLSS-Birmingham City University, Birmingham, UK.
Journal of environmental management
|November 11, 2023
概括
地球 地球 地球 地球 地球 地球
科学领域:
- 太空碎片 太空碎片
- 轨道上的可持续性
- 国际太空法 国际太空法
背景情况:
- 地球轨道是一个有限的资源,与无限的外太空不同.
- 目前的轨道环境是不可持续的,并面临新卫星星座的风险.
- 现有的国际法规已经过时,导致了碎片危机.
研究的目的:
- 用基于概率的经验模型来预测空间物体的增长.
- 为了确定轨道环境的临界密度值.
- 为了估计积极清除碎片的成本.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于概率的实证模型,用于空间物体的增长.
- 分析了地球轨道上的物体的轨迹.
- 与积极清除碎片相关的估计成本.
主要成果:
- 轨道部门预计很快将在没有干预的情况下跨越"临界密度"的门.
- 活动垃圾清除成本估计.
- 仅仅是技术解决方案对轨道可持续性来说是不够的.
结论:
- 轨道可持续性不仅需要先进的技术.
- 国际空间法规的根本性修订是必不可少的.
- 如果不采取行动,可能会对地球可用的轨道造成不可逆转的损害.
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