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针对COVID-19的可解释机器学习:关于严重性预测任务的实证研究
Han Wu1, Wenjie Ruan1, Jiangtao Wang2
1University of Exeter EX4 4PY Exeter U.K.
概括
机器学习模型可以通过解释生物标志物来预测COVID-19的严重程度. 增加的N-终端前脑尿素,C反应蛋白,乳酸脱酶和淋巴细胞减少表明严重的感染和死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 生物医学信息学 生物医学信息学
- 人工智能在医学中的应用
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
背景情况:
- 机器学习 (ML) 模型的"黑子"性质阻碍了对COVID-19诊断等关键医疗应用的信任和部署.
- 解释ML模型可以揭示关键的生物标志物,帮助临床医生在流行病期间感到压倒.
- 识别可靠的生物标志物对于预测COVID-19严重程度和患者结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 解释机器学习模型以识别与COVID-19感染严重程度相关的生物标志物.
- 用独立的数据集验证已识别的生物标志物.
- 提高高精度ML诊断工具的临床实用性.
主要方法:
- 使用了四种ML模型:决策树,随机森林,梯度增强树和神经网络.
- 采用了各种解释技术:排列特征重要性,部分依赖图,个人有条件预期,累积局部效应,LIME和SHAP.
- 分析了两个数据集:中国珠海的92名患者和Kaggle (以色列阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医院) 的5644名患者.
主要成果:
- 鉴定了N-终端前脑尿素,C反应蛋白和乳酸脱酶的增加,以及淋巴细胞的减少,作为严重COVID-19和死亡风险的指标.
- 在更大的数据集上验证了这些发现,证实了与严重感染的关联.
- 发现白细胞,乙氨基和血小板作为COVID-19的额外指示生物标志物.
结论:
- 模型解释技术有效地识别了用于COVID-19严重程度预测的关键生物标志物.
- 生物标志物,如N终端亲脑尿素,C反应蛋白,乳酸脱酶和淋巴细胞,对于评估COVID-19预后至关重要.
- 白血球,乙氨基和血小板也作为COVID-19的重要指标,支持在临床环境中使用可解释AI.
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