在事故频率分析中解读促成因素的影响并解决社会差异
Jinli Liu1, Subasish Das1, Md Nasim Khan1
1Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, Texas 78666, United States.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|November 13, 2023
概括
社会差异显著影响交通事故发生的频率. 在低收入地区投资基础设施,如步行者和公共交通,可以减少车祸并提高交通安全.
科学领域:
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 了解社会差距与交通事故频率之间的联系对于有效的交通规划至关重要.
- 有限的研究系统地探讨了社会经济和基础设施差异对宏观水平机率的影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个空间框架来分析与人口,社会经济,基础设施和交通特征相关的撞车率.
- 评估这些因素对人口普查区组 (CBG) 层面的撞车频率的空间和统计影响.
主要方法:
- 在普通最小平方 (OLS) 模型余量上使用空间自相关分析来检测非静止性.
- 用地理加权回归 (GWR) 和多尺度地理加权回归 (MGWR) 模型来分析空间关系.
主要成果:
- MGWR在识别致命和伤害 (FI) 和仅对财产损害 (PDO) 事故的空间关系方面表现优于OLS和GWR.
- 六个关键变量被确定为对大多数CBG的崩率产生重大影响,低收入地区的基础设施改进显示出了巨大的好处.
结论:
- MGWR是一种高效的宏观崩分析技术,其性能优于传统方法.
- 建议在社会经济弱势地区进行有针对性的基础设施改进,以减轻交通事故的频率并提高道路安全.
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